Twelve fights happened at Meta APEX on Saturday night. Staaty had a pick for every one of them before the card started, each with a confidence number attached. This is what happened when those twelve picks met twelve actual fights.
Nobody placed a real bet here. This is a $100-per-fight accounting of what following every Staaty pick would have won or lost, using the real moneyline odds available that week. No parlays, no live betting, no doubling down mid-card. Straight arithmetic.
The Bottom Line
A $100 bet on all twelve Staaty picks returns $1,744.18. That's a $544.18 profit. The model didn't need a perfect night. It needed to be right about the two fights nobody else was.
Fight by Fight
This is not real money. It shows what a flat $100 bet on each Staaty pick would have won or lost, at that week's real moneyline odds. Green bars win money. Red bars lose the full $100.
The Full Card
| Fight | Staaty Pick | Confidence | Vegas Line | Actual Result | $100 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauregui vs. DemopoulosStrawweight, opener | Jauregui | 69.3% | Jauregui –1050 | Jauregui TKO, R1 | +$9.52 |
| Castaneda vs. Alatengheili | Castaneda | 51.1% | Castaneda –395 | Alatengheili, split dec. | –$100 |
| Jackson vs. Simon | Jackson | 62.5% | Jackson –218 | Jackson TKO, R2 | +$45.87 |
| Brener vs. Harrell | Brener | 63.4% | Harrell –122 (fav.) | Brener TKO, R1 | +$102.00 |
| Bellato vs. Edwards | Edwards | 52.6% | Bellato –185 (fav.) | Edwards TKO, R3 | +$154.00 |
| Vieira vs. Bryczek | Vieira | 68.0% | Vieira –162 | Vieira dec. (30–27 x3) | +$61.73 |
| Hiestand vs. Nakamura | Hiestand | 64.4% | Nakamura –380 (fav.) | Hiestand sub., R2 | +$300.00 |
| Amaya vs. Black | Amaya | 53.6% | Black –218 (fav.) | Black TKO, R2 | –$100 |
| Osmanli vs. Akylbek | Osmanli | 60.3% | Osmanli –298 | Akylbek by DQ, R1 | –$100 |
| Hernandez vs. Dumas | Hernandez | 66.2% | Hernandez –238 | Hernandez sub., R1 | +$42.02 |
| Dumont vs. Perez | Perez | 51.7% | Perez –155 | Perez dec. (unanimous) | +$64.52 |
| Rosas Jr. vs. BarcelosMain event | Rosas Jr. | 83.1% | Rosas Jr. –155 | Rosas Jr. TKO, R5 | +$64.52 |
Osmanli's fight ended in a disqualification for an illegal knee, a result no win model is in the business of forecasting. It's graded as a loss on the bet slip anyway, because the sportsbook doesn't grade on intent either.
Odds and Confidence, Explained
- A minus number, like –155, is the favorite. You'd bet $155 to win $100.
- A plus number, like +300, is the underdog. You'd bet $100 to win that many dollars. The bigger the plus number, the bigger the longshot and the bigger the payout.
- Staaty's confidence is a separate number. It's how sure the model is, based on the fighters' real career stats, independent of what the betting market thinks. When the two agree, that's not news. When they don't, that's the whole reason to have a model.
Confidence, Broken Down
Eight of last night's twelve picks came in at 60% confidence or higher. The other four were close to a coin flip. Here's how each group actually did.
The high-confidence group hit 87.5%. The low-confidence group landed exactly on 50%, a real coin flip. When Staaty says it isn't sure, it means it. The honest move on those fights is to bet less, not to ignore the model.
One Night Against the Real Track Record
The chart below compares last night to Staaty's actual season numbers across more than 1,700 graded fights, the same figures shown on the live betting page.
Win-picking ran hot. Method-calling was ordinary, same as most nights. Round-calling had a genuinely bad night, and the next section explains why.
Where Staaty Earns Its Keep
Betting the Vegas favorite on every fight, the simplest possible strategy, would have gone 7 for 12 last night. Staaty went 9 for 12. Staaty disagreed with the favorite on four fights: Amaya over Black, Hiestand over Nakamura, Edwards over Bellato, and Brener over Harrell. It went 3 for 4 on those disagreements. Two of those three correct underdog calls, Hiestand at +300 and Edwards at +154, made up $454 of the night's $544.18 profit by themselves. The model earns its keep on the nights it disagrees with the crowd and turns out to be right.
The Round-Three Habit
One habit worth flagging: Staaty picked round three in all twelve fights on this card. Every single one. It was right three times, and those three fights, Perez, Vieira, and Edwards, were the only three that actually went to a decision. Round three isn't really a prediction here so much as the model's default assumption that a fight goes the distance unless told otherwise. That's a reasonable fallback and a poor substitute for actually knowing when a fight ends.
Nine winners, three underdogs called correctly, one disqualification nobody saw coming, and a model that still assumes round three until proven wrong. Most Saturdays.
Method & Sources
Picks and confidence scores are Staaty's real, precomputed model output for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos (Sept. 26, 2026, Meta APEX), the same numbers shown on the live UFC betting page before the card started. Moneyline odds are from that week's market. Season accuracy and baseline figures come from Staaty's own graded track record across 1,700+ historical fights. No money was actually wagered by Staaty or Steve Hall. This is informational and entertainment content, not betting advice, and past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.