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STAATY Betting

Basketball Win, Spread & Total Picks

Moneyline, spread, and total-points picks for every league, built from each team's real pre-game form and current Elo, computed ahead of time and never re-run on the fly.

Model Accuracy how right we've really been

Win Picks: Regular Season509 graded
73.5%
vs. 56.2% just picking the obvious favorite every time

Clearly better than just guessing the obvious pick.

Win Picks: Full Season (incl. Playoffs)678 graded
69.8%
vs. 56.2% just picking the obvious favorite every time

Clearly better than just guessing the obvious pick.

Spread Error: Regular Season±11.7 ptsvs ±14.1 pts just guessing the average
Total Error: Regular Season±16.1 ptsvs ±16.1 pts just guessing the average
Spread Error: Full Season±12.2 ptsvs ±14.0 pts just guessing the average
Total Error: Full Season±16.4 ptsvs ±16.3 pts just guessing the average

The baseline is "always pick the home team," a real, well-known edge in basketball. Accuracy is checked on games the model never trained on. "Full Season" folds in completed playoff games (same rosters, same season, just elimination stakes); "Regular Season" leaves them out. Spread and total are point estimates, not percentages: "error" is how far off the pick typically is in either direction, so lower is better.

Upcoming Games 100 scheduled

Nov 5Head-to-Head ›
Miami HeatvsGolden State Warriors
Home
81%

Pick: Golden State Warriors to win, 81% confidence

SpreadGolden State Warriors -9.5
Total229.4
Nov 5Head-to-Head ›
Orlando MagicvsPhoenix Suns
Home
73%

Pick: Phoenix Suns to win, 73% confidence

SpreadPhoenix Suns -4.1
Total226.4

Recent Picks how the last ones landed

Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston CelticsPicked Boston CelticsActual: Boston CelticsCorrect
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston RocketsPicked Houston RocketsActual: Minnesota TimberwolvesMissed
Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit PistonsPicked Detroit PistonsActual: Philadelphia 76ersMissed
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington WizardsPicked Atlanta HawksActual: Atlanta HawksCorrect
Miami Heat @ LA ClippersPicked LA ClippersActual: Miami HeatMissed
Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento KingsPicked Los Angeles LakersActual: Los Angeles LakersCorrect
Portland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix SunsPicked Portland Trail BlazersActual: Portland Trail BlazersCorrect
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans PelicansPicked New Orleans PelicansActual: New Orleans PelicansCorrect
Chicago Bulls @ New York KnicksPicked New York KnicksActual: New York KnicksCorrect
Charlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn NetsPicked Brooklyn NetsActual: Brooklyn NetsCorrect
Toronto Raptors @ Denver NuggetsPicked Denver NuggetsActual: Denver NuggetsCorrect
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio SpursPicked San Antonio SpursActual: San Antonio SpursCorrect
Indiana Pacers @ Memphis GrizzliesPicked Memphis GrizzliesActual: Indiana PacersMissed
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City ThunderPicked Oklahoma City ThunderActual: Oklahoma City ThunderCorrect
Brooklyn Nets @ New York KnicksPicked New York KnicksActual: New York KnicksCorrect
Sacramento Kings @ Dallas MavericksPicked Dallas MavericksActual: Sacramento KingsMissed
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State WarriorsPicked Golden State WarriorsActual: Golden State WarriorsCorrect
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana PacersPicked Atlanta HawksActual: Atlanta HawksCorrect
Boston Celtics @ Houston RocketsPicked Houston RocketsActual: Houston RocketsCorrect
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte HornetsPicked Detroit PistonsActual: Detroit PistonsCorrect
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland CavaliersPicked Cleveland CavaliersActual: Oklahoma City ThunderMissed
Washington Wizards @ Orlando MagicPicked Washington WizardsActual: Washington WizardsCorrect
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ersPicked Philadelphia 76ersActual: Philadelphia 76ersCorrect
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis GrizzliesPicked Memphis GrizzliesActual: New Orleans PelicansMissed
Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota TimberwolvesPicked Minnesota TimberwolvesActual: Minnesota TimberwolvesCorrect

STAATY builds and runs its own prediction models and publishes the picks they produce. We are not a sportsbook, do not accept wagers, and are not responsible for any bets, losses, winnings, or other outcomes connected to using this information. Picks are for informational and entertainment purposes only, not financial or betting advice, and past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly and within your means. See our Terms of Use for the full policy.

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1
Win Picks: Regular Season1,284 graded
2
63.2%
3
4vs. 58.4% just picking the obvious favorite every time
5Clearly better than just guessing the obvious pick.
  1. 1 Title: which pick and which games this card is checking.
  2. 2 Big percent: how often this pick was actually right.
  3. 3 Bar: the same percent as a fill, with a white tick mark at the baseline so the gap is visible at a glance.
  4. 4 "vs. X%" line: the baseline in words, what you'd get by always picking the obvious favorite.
  5. 5 Verdict sentence: our plain-English take on whether that gap is big enough to matter.
1Spread Error: Regular Season
2±4.2 pts
3vs ±6.1 pts just guessing the average
  1. Spread is our guess at how many points one team wins by (the margin). This card checks how good that guess actually was.
  2. 1 Title: which games this is checking.
  3. 2 ± number: how many points off our margin guess usually was. Lower is better.
  4. 3 "vs ±..." line: the baseline, what you'd get by just guessing the average margin every game.
1Total Error: Regular Season
2±9.1 pts
3vs ±11.8 pts just guessing the average
  1. Total is our guess at the combined score, both teams' points added together. This card checks how good that guess actually was.
  2. 1 Title: which games this is checking.
  3. 2 ± number: how many points off our combined-score guess usually was. Lower is better, same rule as Spread.
  4. 3 "vs ±..." line: the baseline, what you'd get by just guessing the average combined score every game.
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